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Saturday, January 2, 2010

Back Room Patriots Prediction: Week 17 vs Texans

Where one bloggler puts his two typing fingers where his money is

New England +8 at Texans, O/U 46

By Rocky:

What we are playing for: the 3rd or 4th spot in the playoffs with the Bengals.

What they are playing for: the chance of a playoff spot; an outside chance in which they have to win and other teams have to lose.

What are we really playing for (or not really playing for)? To see, if we win in the first round of the playoffs, if we’d play the Chargers or the Colts in the second round. Personally I’d rather play the Colts in the second tier which means we’d need a loss to slip down to the fourth seed. Right now the teams with the best probability for the Wild Card spots are the Ravens then the Broncos. If the Wild Card picture remains the same and the Pats slide–smartly?–to the fourth seed we’d play the Ravens in the opening round at Gillette. While we beat them on a fluke earlier this year Jersey Joe Flacco doesn’t appear to be a “winner.” So I vote for sitting our older starters who will heal more than lose momentum by sitting out a week and let’s lose this one.

Our headiest scenario with the fourth slot: Ravens-Colts, most likely-and then probably, the Chargers. I’d rather hope someone else eliminates the Chargers than have the guarantee that we do play them in the second round. And I think that the Colts have put so much pressure on themselves by NOT going undefeated. Their first playoff game will be the toughest for the semi-young team because they sat Manning. I say we follow the trend and sit Brady, I want to see Hoyer under center early and I believe our opponent, the Texans, are our best friend tomorrow.

I find it conflicting when fans root against their team in the final weeks so that they get a better draft pick, but here’s a time when losing a game will help us this season. Go Texans with the moneyline.


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